To: Interested Parties
From: Jennifer Carroll Foy for Governor
Re: Campaign Update
Date: April 16, 2021
As we enter the next phase of the primary campaign, it is clear that the race for Virginia Governor is a two-person race between Jennifer Carroll Foy and Terry McAuliffe. Carroll Foy is the new leader voters say they are looking for and is in the strongest position to challenge the status quo with her fresh vision for the future. She has already been recognized as the “most formidable” challenger to McAuliffe and the “favorite in the race” of everyday Virginians and the organizations that represent them.
Yesterday, the campaign launched its first TV ad, highlighting Carroll Foy’s deep commitment to fighting for quality, affordable healthcare for all Virginians rooted in her family’s struggles. The campaign’s media buys are in addition to a robust field program that has already resulted in thousands of direct voter conversations. Ours is the only challenger campaign able to communicate directly to voters in a meaningful way.
Resources to Compete Statewide
During Q1, Jennifer Carroll Foy raised more than $1.8 million and entered April with more than $2.3 million cash on hand (COH), concrete evidence of her status as the only progressive in the race with the resources to win. So far, our campaign has raised $3.7 million this cycle. The campaign raised more than Ralph Northam during Q1 of his successful bid for governor in 2017 and has $600k more cash on hand than Tom Perriello had after Q1 in 2017 when he ran for governor.
Our campaign has a more than 5:1 COH advantage compared to the next highest fundraiser, State Sen. Jennifer McClellan, who raised less than $635k in Q1 into her gubernatorial campaign account and ended the quarter with $442k COH, a fraction of the balance in the accounts of multiple down-ballot Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General campaigns. Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and Del. Lee Carter trail with $21k and $89k COH respectively. These candidates do not have the resources to compete in Virginia, which includes one of the nation’s most expensive media markets.
How Virginians See the Candidates
Support for the de-facto incumbent Terry McAuliffe remains soft, with anywhere between a third and half of the electorate still undecided despite his near-universal name-ID. Our polling has consistently shown that as voters learn about Carroll Foy, they gravitate toward her campaign, while support for McAuliffe stagnates and even drops, and support for Fairfax and McClellan is unchanged. This is why resources will make the difference for Carroll Foy, but infinite spending will not make McAuliffe’s message and profile any more resonant with voters.
Fundamentally, this is because Virginians see Carroll Foy as someone who has walked in their shoes and will fight for them based on her experiences as a public defender, magistrate judge, mom, and Delegate who passed robust legislation. Focus groups show that voters see her as “strong,” “hardworking,” “dedicated,” and a “fighter.” Democratic primary voters in particular connect with her personal story and appreciate that she has dedicated her life to navigating the failed systems and broken policies that have held our most vulnerable back. Carroll Foy does not need to overcome the additional, and more difficult obstacle of rebranding herself as a “bold” leader — she simply needs to introduce herself to Virginians across the Commonwealth.
Carroll Foy’s Broad Coalition
Jennifer Carroll Foy is the candidate of the people. She has been proud to earn endorsements from more labor and advocacy groups than any other candidate in the race, representing thousands of working Virginians across the Commonwealth. Recently, major organizations such as Clean Virginia, national leaders such as Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Lauren Underwood, and former NAACP President Ben Jealous — in addition to the dozens of Virginia elected officials and community leaders who have endorsed her fresh vision for Virginia.
A Record of Delivering Real Results
Jennifer Carroll Foy has the right experience to lead Virginia forward. She is an experienced fighter for working families as a public defender, magistrate judge, one of the first women to graduate from Virginia Military Institute, and an accomplished legislator. She has spent years fighting for those unable to fight for themselves.
Carroll Foy also has the political might to win and make real change. Despite HD-02 being a traditionally Republican district, including going for Trump in 2016, Carroll Foy flipped the district blue in 2017, and out performed the top of the ticket, as a first-time candidate — and was one of the only Democrats elected in Stafford. In 2020, the district flipped for Biden, largely credited to the groundwork laid by Carroll Foy and her organizers. Since she flipped the district:
- The Dumfries City Council flipped to a Democratic majority.
- Two seats on the Prince William County Board of Supervisors and one seat on the Stafford County Board of Supervisors flipped from red to blue.
- Tim Kaine carried the area, including Stafford, in 2018.
- Carroll Foy won re-election with a larger vote share in 2019.
- In 2020, the region elected a Democrat for the first time in a presidential election since the 1970s.
To read more about Jennifer Carroll Foy’s fresh vision for Virginia and her experiences in the House of Delegates, visit https://jennifercarrollfoy.com/issues/.